It feel like the 1930s all over again . We ’re facing an economical depression and there ’s a push forNew Deal - style policiesto recover from it . And according to a newstudy , we ’ve also dramatically increased the likeliness of learn the kinds of record - breaking heat waves that caused the Dust Bowl .
The Dust Bowl was a period of devastating drouth and severe dust storm across the Great Plains from Montana to Texas . The main driver of the desolation were two rare heat wave in 1934 and 1936 , which still mark the hot summer on track record in the U.S.
It ’s been well - documented that eminent levels of nursery gases in the atmosphere have made estrus wavesmoresevereandmorelikelyto happen . In a fresh study published in Nature Climate Change on Monday , researchers used clime simulation to see how much more likely 1930s - like heat waves are to occur under today ’s atmospheric carbon concentrations .
A cow looking for food in Kansas on 9 April 2025.Photo: AP
https://gizmodo.com/a-second-dust-bowl-could-threaten-global-food-security-1842426292
Using an Oxford University mood model which lead on thousands of volunteers ’ personal computers around the world , the researchers modeled more than 1,200 scenario using sea temperatures and carbon dioxide levels of the 1930s . The Dust Bowl heat energy waves were preponderantly driven by strong ocean temperature in the North Atlantic and coolheaded temperatures in the tropical Pacific . That induce a ridgepole of high pressure to refugee camp over the Plains , leading to sunny skies and excessive heat . The model runs showed that just one in 100 of the simulations run produced oestrus wave on the level of the thirties , meaning heating system waving of that order of magnitude were potential to pass just once every 100 years int he past .
Then , the researchers conducted another set of simulations . This clock time , they used current greenhouse throttle levels and the 1930 ocean surface temperature patterns to see how nursery gas befoulment feign the likelihood of heat wave under similar conditions . They found that today ’s greenhouse accelerator levels make Dust Bowl - eccentric heat waves at least two and a one-half more likely in the U.S. today . That signify under current carbon concentrations , we ’re now probable to see them every 40 years .
“ [ That ] may seem to be a prospicient sentence , ” Tim Cowan , a researcher at the University of Southern Queensland in Australia and lead author of the Modern work , told Earther in an electronic mail . “ But we ’re talking about book - breaking temperature and heatwaves that last almost 3 week . ”
The effect would be ruinous . The original Dust Bowl caused malnutrition and deadlydisease , destroy agriculture , and drovehundreds of thousandsof agriculture families in 19 states to flee the area in hunting of plowland .
“ We know from previous studies that a present - 24-hour interval Dust Bowl drought would importantly bear upon crop yield , ” said Cowan , touch to a2016 studythat showed heat wave of this order of magnitude would create harvest yield losses about 50 percent big than those of the2012 drought , which caused nearly $ 100 billion of damage to the U.S. economic system . “ So there are serious implication for intellectual nourishment security . ”
The research worker ’ warning are also back up by astudy print in Aprilshowed that the western U.S. has embark amegadrought , and aMarch studywhich designate Dust Bowl - like oestrus and drouth in the U.S. could deplete the world ’s pale yellow reserves by more than 75 million tons over four years . The only way to decrease our chances of come across the kinds of drought is to turn down world carbon emissions , fast .
“ Summertime maximum temperatures across continental US have warmed over 1 degree Fahrenheit since the 1950s , so unless there is speedy external action to curb greenhouse gaseous state emission , then we ’d carry the Dust Bowl temperature records to be broken in the dear future , ” said Cowan .
Even if world leader perplex it together immediately , though , that would n’t obviate the potential for this kind of clime modification - fuel heat , so we also postulate to accommodate . We can do so by using agricultural practices that make harvest more resilient , like planting cover version crops to promote soil heathland and practice no - till farming to avoid erosion . Beyond the farming gist , we should also make people are equipped to handle the heat as best as possible . That could commence with ensuring accession toair conditioningandwater .
“ We have to watch to adapt to these types of heat extremes , ” said Cowan . “ Adaptation will be the key . ”
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